Evaluation of coastal risks to Sea level rise: Case study of Nile Delta Coast

Abstract

One of the most effective strategies for coastal management in Egypt is analyzing how the Nile Delta shoreline is adapted for climate change and rising sea levels and identifying the most vulnerable and hotspot sites. Thirteen geological, physical, and socioeconomic factors were identified and assessed to ascertain the level of vulnerability of the Egyptian Delta coast. The rank for each parameter was integrated using two different techniques (Gornitz’s method and Analytical hierarchy process, AHP) to estimate the coastal vulnerability index, CVI. Based on the CVI, similar values gained from both models (72 % correlated), the Nile Delta shoreline is categorized into five vulnerability levels (very high, high, moderate, low, and very low), with about 20 % equal predomination for each. The most vulnerable region is Abo-Khashba Bay, with approximately 60 % of the shoreline bay categorized as very high vulnerability. By contrast, the moderate-very low vulnerability categories predominate the Burullus headland (more than 75 % of the shoreline). The study also reveals that the factors that most influence the vulnerability level in the study area are geomorphology, land elevation, coastal slope, bathymetry, wave exposure, the presence of artificial structures, and land use changes. The findings outlined in this study are significant for future development and could be a basis for future decision-making to prevent further damage to the Nile Delta shoreline.