Abstract
The demand for elderly care in China is growing, and the elderly care industry has great development prospects. Climatic conditions are important factors that affect the health of elderly individuals and the development of the elderly care industry. This study will have important guiding significance for the layout of China’s elderly care industry. This paper utilizes ArcGIS and the spatial fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to analyze the climatic suitability for the development of the elderly care industry in China’s four municipalities, the Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan regions, and 333 prefecture-level administrative regions based on six factors: temperature, humidity, airflow, air pressure, sunshine, and precipitation. In addition, development suggestions are proposed. The results show the following. (1) The areas with highly suitable climatic conditions for the development of the elderly care industry in China are concentrated in the eastern and southern areas of Southwest China and the southern areas of Central and East China, mainly in the Yangtze and Pearl River Basins. Slightly suitable areas are distributed around highly suitable areas, concentrated in the central and southern regions of China. Low-suitability areas are clustered, including an area spanning northern North China and East China, southern Northeast China, and central Northwest China, and there is another cluster in Xinjiang. The non-suitable area resembles a strip extending from Northeast China along the Inner Mongolia Plateau to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. (2) In Central and Southwest China, there are 57 prefecture-level administrative units with highly suitable temperature conditions that can develop an elderly care industry for patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Twenty-eight prefecture-level administrative regions with comprehensively suitable temperature and humidity conditions scattered throughout the country can develop an elderly care industry for elderly patients suffering from rheumatic and respiratory diseases.
Highlights
The 30 years will be a critical period for the rapid growth of the elderly population and a drastic rise in demand for elderly care in China [1,2]
The distributions of the four levels of suitability were obtained for the six factors, namely, temperature, humidity, airflow, air pressure, sunshine, and precipitation, and for the comprehensive climatic suitability for the development of the elderly care industry in China
This comparison revealed that the comprehensive climatically suitable and slightly suitable areas for the development of the elderly care industry are consistent with the overall spatial distributions of highly suitable areas and slightly suitable areas for the human settlement environment in China, and they are all concentrated in southern China, indicating that the results of this study are reliable
Summary
The 30 years will be a critical period for the rapid growth of the elderly population and a drastic rise in demand for elderly care in China [1,2]. By 2050, the proportion of China’s elderly population will exceed 30% [1], the assets of the elderly care industry will reach 21.95 trillion yuan, and the elderly consumer market will reach 60 trillion yuan [2]. The large-scale demand for quality elderly care exceeds China’s existing elderly care service supply capabilities. It is urgent to carry out structural reforms from the supply side, explore new market-oriented development models for the elderly care industry, and cultivate high-quality elderly care industry bases. Since the Healthy China Strategy was put forward, all regions have been striving to seize development opportunities in the elderly care industry; the risk of widespread and uncoordinated development is prominent
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