Abstract
This study evaluated changes in climatic variable impacts on hydrology and water quality in Big Sunflower River Watershed (BSRW), Mississippi. Site-specific future time-series precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation data were generated using a stochastic weather generator LARS-WG model. For the generation of climate scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5 of Global Circulation Models (GCMs): Hadley Center Global Environmental Model (HadGEM) and EC-EARTH, for three (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080) future climate periods. Analysis of future climate data based on six ground weather stations located within BSRW showed that the minimum temperature ranged from 11.9 °C to 15.9 °C and the maximum temperature ranged from 23.2 °C to 28.3 °C. Similarly, the average daily rainfall ranged from 3.6 mm to 4.3 mm. Analysis of changes in monthly average maximum/minimum temperature showed that January had the maximum increment and July/August had a minimum increment in monthly average temperature. Similarly, maximum increase in monthly average rainfall was observed during May and maximum decrease was observed during September. The average monthly streamflow, sediment, TN, and TP loads under different climate scenarios varied significantly. The change in average TN and TP loads due to climate change were observed to be very high compared to the change in streamflow and sediment load. The monthly average nutrient load under two different RCP scenarios varied greatly from as low as 63% to as high as 184%, compared to the current monthly nutrient load. The change in hydrology and water quality was mainly attributed to changes in surface temperature, precipitation, and stream flow. This study can be useful in the development and implementation of climate change smart management of agricultural watersheds.
Highlights
The global surface temperature has been increasing at the rate of 0.2 ◦ C per decade as a result of greenhouse gas emissions in the past and present [1,2] Heavy precipitation has been observed in some regions of the world while other parts of the world have observed deficit precipitation drought [1] Such variation in the global temperature precipitation pattern is an indicator of climate change which increases the risk of environmental hazards such as flooding storm surge landslides soil erosion, d.r.o.u.g.h.t.; other environmental damage [3] Hydrologists are more concerned about climate change since it has a significant effect on water resources hydrological, p.r.o.c.e.s.s.e.s
The climate change impact study related to hydrology and water quality of specific watershed characteristics may vary from general to macro scale [4]
The Big Sunflower River Watershed (BSRW), an agricultural watershed located at the north-western part of the state of Mississippi in the conterminous United States, was selected as a study area to analyze climate change and its impact on hydrology and water quality
Summary
The global surface temperature has been increasing at the rate of 0.2 ◦ C per decade as a result of greenhouse gas emissions in the past and present [1,2] Heavy precipitation has been observed in some regions of the world while other parts of the world have observed deficit precipitation drought [1] Such variation in the global temperature precipitation pattern is an indicator of climate change which increases the risk of environmental hazards such as flooding storm surge landslides soil erosion, d.r.o.u.g.h.t.; other environmental damage [3] Hydrologists are more concerned about climate change since it has a significant effect on water resources hydrological, p.r.o.c.e.s.s.e.s. The climate change impact study related to hydrology and water quality of specific watershed characteristics may vary from general to macro scale [4]. Climate change assessment can be performed based on climate change scenario data obtained from different sources such as General Circulations Models (GCMs). GCMs have been developed for the generation of future climate data for any part 4.0/). They are available for any part of the world, these data may not be used directly at study sites because of their coarse spatial resolution [5]
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