Abstract
In the framework of operational air quality forecasts in Belgium, an ensemble prediction system based on the chemical transport model (CTM) Chimere has been implemented. The Chimere model was forced by ECMWF meteorological fields and by the EMEP emission database. The simulation domain covers Western Europe with a spatial resolution of 0.5∘. The objective of these ensemble simulations consists of evaluating the impact of uncertainties from emission and meteorological data on the simulated concentrations of pollutants. Such evaluations are important in the operational context, since they contribute to reduce the risk of false alarm and inappropriate broadcast of information to the public. Indeed the forecaster has at its disposal more information to better judge to what extent a change in one or more particular input parameters can influence the modelled pollutant concentrations.
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