Abstract

Sudden, large-scale infestations of house mice (Mus musculus domesticus) occur irregularly in the cereal-growing regions of Australia, resulting in substantial economic losses. Mathematical modelling has been used to evaluate the use of the liver nematode Capillaria hepatica as a potential agent for the biological control of mouse populations. The models suggest that C. hepatica is unlikely to be successful as a single-release control agent: instead, the parasite would need to be released when it becomes apparent that an outbreak is likely. Stage-structured models, including time delays and seasonal mouse demographic parameters, suggest that the parasite may be successful as a control agent, provided it can be introduced into the mouse population at least one year before an outbreak occurs. The optimum time for introduction is in summer or autumn. Some generalisations of this work are discussed. A parasite which affects fecundity alone is unlikely to be a good control agent, because it will destabilize the host population. Macroparasites may be unable to spread sufficiently rapidly to control sudden rises in vertebrate populations.

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