Evaluation of a composite drought index to identify seasonal drought and its associated atmospheric dynamics in Northern Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract

Drought is one of the most devastating climate extremes in terms of its spatial extent and intensity. Rainfed areas are extremely vulnerable to drought, but effective monitoring may lessen the impact of such events. This study developed a composite drought index (CDI) for monitoring and assessing seasonal droughts in rainfed areas of the Potwar Plateau of Pakistan, using remotely sensed and observed meteorological datasets. We identified four severe-to-extreme drought periods in the Rabi season (wheat; 2000–01, 2001–02, 2009–10, and 2011–12) and four such events in the Kharif season (maize; 2000–2002 and 2009). An intense agro-meteorological drought was experienced in 2000, which reduced the wheat and maize yields to −54.6% and −29.9%, respectively. Our analysis revealed that these conditions could be explained by the vertically integrated moisture flux divergence (MFD), moisture transport, and total precipitable water (TPW) anomalies. For example, the presence of a strong MFD anomaly over the study area was responsible for preventing moisture transport from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, resulting in dry conditions. The index developed here can effectively monitor seasonal droughts in rainfed areas, which may help inform strategies to lessen the impact of such events.