Evaluation of 2-m temperature and precipitation products of the Climate Forecast System version 2 over Iran

Abstract

Using a continuous multi-decadal simulations over the period 1981–2010, subseasonal to seasonal simulations of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) over Iran against the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) dataset are evaluated. CFSv2 shows cold biases over northern hillsides of the Alborz Mountains with the Mediterranean climate and warm biases over northern regions of the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea with a dry climate. Magnitude of the model bias for 2-m temperature over different regions of Iran varies by season, with the least bias in temperate seasons of spring and autumn, and the largest bias in summer. The model bias decreases as temporal averaging period increases from seasonal to annual. The forecast generally produces dry and wet biases over dry and wet regions of Iran, respectively. In general, 2-m temperature over Iran is better captured than precipitation, but the prediction skill of precipitation is generally high over western Iran. Averaged over Iran, observations indicated that 2-m temperature has been gradually increasing during the studied period, with a rate of approximately 0.5 °C per decade, and the upward trend is well simulated by CFSv2. Averaged over Iran, both observations and simulation results indicated that precipitation has been decreasing in spring, with averaged decreasing trends of 0.8 mm (observed) and 1.7 mm (simulated) per season each year during the period 1981–2010. Observations indicated that the maximum increasing trend of 2-m temperature has occurred over western Iran (nearly 0.7 °C per decade), while the maximum decreasing trend of annual precipitation has occurred over western and parts of southern Iran (nearly 45 to 50 mm per decade).