Evaluation Model of Urban Resilience in the Face of Public Health Emergencies: A Case Study of Xi’an

Abstract

In recent years, there have been frequent outbreaks of public health emergencies worldwide, especially resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, which has seriously affected social and economic development and people’s production and life. In order to avoid or minimize the harm caused by these emergencies to society and the public, this article constructs a resilience indicator system for urban emergency response capabilities based on resistance, adaptation, and recovery. We establish a dynamic model of urban emergency response resilience, select the infectious disease dynamics method as the index weight calculation method, analyze the correlations among various indicators and parameters of the urban emergency response resilience system, and conduct sensitivity analysis on the model parameters to determine the importance sequence of each model parameter. Combined with the fuzzy hierarchy analysis method, we evaluate the model and use the 2021 year-end epidemic in Xi’an as an example to evaluate the urban emergency response resilience level using the evaluation model. According to the maximum membership degree principle, the results show that the emergency resilience levels of Xi’an were “moderately strong”, “moderately strong”, and “strong” in the first, second, and third stages of the epidemic, respectively. The results demonstrate that the method proposed in this article can objectively reflect the current level of urban emergency resilience and provide some references and guidance for improving the resilience of urban emergency response to public health emergencies.