Evaluation carrying capacity of the upstream oil and gas industry in Indonesia using the artificial neural network method

Abstract

The population growth rate and economic growth that increase every year result in increased energy needs that are used to support human activities in daily life. Energy consumption in Indonesia comes from petroleum, coal, natural gas, renewable energy (EBT), and hydropower. Petroleum has the most significant portion of energy consumption in Indonesia where oil and gas in the upstream area activities, namely exploration and exploitation carried out to meet energy needs, have not been able to meet domestic energy needs. On the other hand, the economic downturn in the upstream oil and gas industry as a result of changes in world crude oil prices has resulted in reduced investment in this industry. By looking at the condition of non-renewable petroleum natural resources, while the need for oil and gas needs to continue to increase, on the other hand the availability and reserves of oil and gas tends to always decline, it is clear this will certainly have an impact on the upstream oil and gas industry in Indonesia. From the viewpoint of the Theory of Sustainability, were resources for current needs must be sought without compromising the needs of future generations, this can also be applied to the upstream oil and gas industry. Using the Artificial Neural Network method, with its ability to be used to obtain knowledge from complex or inaccurate data, and can also be used to extract patterns and detect trends that are too complex to be noticed either by humans or other computer engineering and the result is a model that can see the carrying capacity of oil and gas exploration and exploitation activities in Indonesia consisting of petroleum reserves, petroleum production rates, and investment. The level of trust shown through the results of the regression, which shows the results of the study how reliable the truth is 0.95. That means that the results of the study were 95% correct, is expected to be used as an alternative in making instruments to support the objectives sustainable development in the oil and gas industry in Indonesia.