Evaluation and Projection of Changes in Daily Maximum Wind Speed over China Based on CMIP6

Abstract

Abstract Future changes in spatiotemporal features of the mean wind speed over China have been extensively reported, but future changes in the maximum wind speed, such as the daily maximum wind speed (DMWS), were rarely estimated. In this study, the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating the DMWS changes across China is evaluated, based on which the projection on DMWS is carried out under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The observed DMWS shows a significant reduction during all four seasons, with the strongest decrease in spring and the weakest decrease in autumn. The DMWS increases from January to April and decreases from April to August. The spatiotemporal characteristics of the DMWS are captured by the multimodel ensemble of CMIP6; however, the reduction of DMWS in CMIP6 is weaker than those in observations. The performance of CMIP6 in simulating the future DMWS changes over China shows regional and seasonal discrepancies. The projected DMWS exhibits a reduction for all SSPs from 2021 to 2100, and the decreasing trend is increased accompanied by the strength in the forcing scenario. The lower-emission scenario likely avoids the long-term weakening of the DMWS. The effects of strength in forcing scenarios on the trends of DMWS are more significant than the DMWS climate state. The seasonal cycle of the projected DMWS under the different SSPs is consistent with the historical DMWS; however, the strength in the forcing scenario could induce enhanced variability in the month-to-month DMWS difference. Significance Statement Estimation and projection of daily maximum wind speed (DMWS) are crucial for many socioeconomic and environmental issues, as DMWS can induce damage to buildings and infrastructure and affect the air quality and frequency of dust storms, among many other aspects. Nevertheless, future changes in the DMWS have rarely been investigated in China. This paper suggests that the lower forcing scenario could effectively avoid the long-term reduction in DMWS. The seasonal cycle of the future DMWS is consistent with the historical DMWS; however, the stronger forcing scenario induces the strengthening of the month-to-month wind speed difference variability. This study provides a scientific basis for decision-makers to formulate policies to deal with climate change.