Abstract
This study provides a detailed assessment of land cover (LC) changes on the water balance components on data constrained Kikafu-Weruweru-Karanga (KWK) watershed, using the integrated approaches of hydrologic modeling and partial least squares regression (PLSR). The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was validated and used to simulate hydrologic responses of water balance components response to changes in LC in spatial and temporal scale. PLSR was further used to assess the influence of individual LC classes on hydrologic components. PLSR results revealed that expansion in cultivation land and built-up area are the main attributes in the changes in water yield, surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater flow. The study findings suggest that improving the vegetation cover on the hillside and abandoned land area could help to reduce the direct surface runoff in the KWK watershed, thus, reducing flooding recurring in the area, and that with the ongoing expansion in agricultural land and built-up areas, there will be profound negative impacts in the water balance of the watershed in the near future (2030). This study provides a forecast of the future hydrological parameters in the study area based on changes in land cover if the current land cover changes go unattended. This study provides useful information for the advancement of our policies and practices essential for sustainable water management planning.
Highlights
IntroductionAnthropic activities such as those leading to extensive land cover changes and climate changes are among the main drivers for changes in hydrological processes of the watershed [1,2,3]
The KWK watershed has mostly featured transformation in agriculture and built-up area; a forecast for the future hydrological processes based on changes in land cover in the study area was presented in this study
The findings of this work show that changes in the water balance components are the function of the land use changes and vegetation distribution within the watershed
Summary
Anthropic activities such as those leading to extensive land cover changes and climate changes are among the main drivers for changes in hydrological processes of the watershed [1,2,3]. Anthropogenic modification of land use/cover is a topmost determinant of environmental changes at spatial and temporal scales [4,5]. It is a principal determining factor of global environmental changes with severe impacts on human livelihoods [6]. Many studies have shown that land use/cover changes influence the hydrology of watersheds [8,9,10,11]. Evaluating the impact of land cover (LC) and climate changes on water resource availability is an important
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