Evaluation and Prediction of Land Use Ecological Security in the Kashgar Region Based on Grid GIS

Abstract

Predicting trends in land use/cover change (LUCC) and assessing future ecological security (ES) can help effectively balance regional ecological conservation and economic development. In this study, a land use simulation model was used to predict the spatial-temporal variation in land use in Kashgar in 2030 under three scenarios (inertial development, agricultural land protection, and forest and rangeland conservation). Subsequently, by combining the pressure–state–response model and predicted land use, the ES of the Kashgar region in 2000, 2010, and 2020 were evaluated. We found that (1) only agricultural land and built-up land in the Kashgar region increased from 2000–2020 by 4174.79 and 434.44 km2, respectively. (2) The area of the region belonging to a generally safe level or above decreased from 38.36% in 2000 to 36.89% in 2010 and then increased to 37.71% in 2020. (3) In 2030, the ES status under the three scenarios will be improved, among which the agricultural land protection scenario corresponds to the best ES status. This research is valuable for deeply understanding the interaction mechanism between LUCC and ES in typical artificial oases in arid areas of the Kashgar region and sustaining relatively stable internal structures and socioeconomic activities in the arid oasis of the Kashgar region.