Evaluation and prediction of irrigation water quality of an agricultural district, SE Nigeria: an integrated heuristic GIS-based and machine learning approach.

Abstract

Poor irrigation water quality can mar agricultural productivity. Traditional assessment of irrigation water quality usually requires the computation of various conventional quality parameters, which is often time-consuming and associated with errors during sub-index computation. To overcome this limitation, it becomes critical, therefore, to have a visual assessment of the irrigation water quality and identify the most influential water quality parameters for accurate prediction, management, and sustainability of irrigation water quality. Therefore, in this study, the overlay weighted sum technique was used to generate the irrigation water quality (IWQ) map of the area. The map revealed that 29.2% of the area is suitable for irrigation (low restriction), 41.7% is moderately suitable (moderate restriction); and 29.1% is unsuitable (high restriction), with the irrigation water quality declining towards the central-southeastern direction. Multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (MLP-ANNs) and multiple linear regression models (MLR) were integrated and validated to predict the IWQ parameters using Cl-, HCO3- SO42-, NO3-, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, pH, EC, TH, and TDS as input variables, and MAR, SAR, PI, KR, SSP, and PS as output variables. The two models showed high-performance accuracy based on the results of the coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.513-0.983). Low modeling errors were observed from the results of the sum of square errors (SOSE), relative errors (RE), adjusted R-square (R2adj), and residual plots, further confirming the efficacy of the two models; although the MLP-ANNs showed higher prediction accuracy for R2. Based on the sensitivity analysis of the MLP-ANN model, HCO3, pH, SO4, EC, and Cl were identified to have the greatest influence on the irrigation water quality of the area. This study has shown that the integration of GIS and machine learning can serve as rapid decision-making tools for proper planning and enhanced agricultural productivity.