Evaluation and Long-Term Prediction of Annual Wind Farm Energy Production

Abstract

A comparison and evaluation of the AEP(Annual Energy Production) of a wind farm were conducted in this study with a feasibility study and using the actual operation data from the S wind farm on Jeju Island from January 2020 to December 2022. The free wind speed data were selected from the data measured from a nacelle anemometer, the correlation equation between wind speed and AEP was obtained, and the annual average wind speed for the past 20 years was predicted using the MCP method. As a result, comparing the AEP from the operation data with that estimated in the feasibility study, we found that the AEP was reduced by approximately 2.40% in 2020 and 12.14% in 2021, and increased by 6.76% in 2022. The wind speeds over the 20-year lifetimes of the wind turbines were obtained, and the AEP that could be generated at the S wind farm indicated that it could be used for operation. In the future, the S wind farm will operate at between 25% and 30% availability for the remaining 17 years of operation. If the availability falls below 25%, there will be a need to check the reasons for the deterioration of wind turbine performance and the frequency of failures.