Evaluation and forecast of the study of the results of the development of the human complex

Abstract

The degree of implementation of the State Program for the Development of the Transport Complex for 2016-2020 is assessed in the article. The analysis of statistical data made it possible to evaluate the contribution of labor resources to the development of the transport complex. The influence of human capital and digitalization factors on the implementation of the State Program for the Development of the Transport Complex for 2021-2025 was studied. A multi-factorial forecast of the development of transport according to the target indicator of gross value added under the influence of individual parameters of human resources, as well non-linear forecast, which can reveal the depth of the influence of the human factor, is carried out. The correlation analysis of the transport complex and factors affecting it from the side of human resources hereof revealed a possible range of deviations in the development of the transport complex from the planned parameters of the target indicator. The results of the study can be used to identify the extent of the relevant risks of implementing state programs, as well as to improve the methodology for predicting the resulting indicators of the functioning of the transport complex.