Evaluation and forecast of coupling coordination of water resources, economy and ecosystem in the Yellow River Basin of Henan Province

Abstract

水资源、经济、生态是我国社会高质量发展的重要组成部分，为助力水资源、经济、生态高质量协调发展，以河南省黄河流域为例，收集了3个子系统27个指标的长系列资料，阐明了指标现状值与目标值的关系，探究了27个指标的时空分布特征，采用组合权重法确定27个指标权重，建立河南省黄河流域水资源-经济-生态系统耦合协调度评价模型，并应用ARIMA-GM组合模型预测河南省黄河流域2021—2025年的耦合协调度发展趋势.结果显示：（1）河南省黄河流域水资源-经济-生态系统综合评价指数在2000—2019年呈上升趋势，其中，经济子系统综合评价指数在3个子系统中上升速度最快.（2）河南省黄河流域水资源-经济-生态系统耦合协调度呈上升趋势，2019年达到0.8105，为良好协调状态.（3）利用ARIMA-GM组合模型分情景预测发现，情景4相对改善力度最大，其耦合协调度在2025年为0.9394，达到优质协调发展类.河南省黄河流域应在经济快速发展的基础上提高水资源利用效率，加强生态保护，拓展城市高质量发展空间.;Water resources, economy and ecology are important components of the high-quality development of our society. In order to facilitate the coordinated development of high-quality water resources, economy and ecology, taking the Yellow River Basin in Henan Province as an example, we collected a long series of data on 27 indicators for 3 subsystems. We also clarified the relationship between the current value of the indicator and the target value, explored the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of 27 indicators, used the combined weight method to determine the weight of the 27 indicators, and established the evaluation model of the water-economy-ecosystem coupling coordination degree of the Yellow River Basin in Henan Province. Then we used the ARIMA-GM combined model to predict the development trend of the degree of coupling and coordination from 2021 to 2025. The results showed:(1) The comprehensive evaluation index of water resources-economy-ecosystem of the Yellow River Basin in Henan Province showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2019. Among them, the comprehensive evaluation index of economic subsystems rose the fastest among the three subsystems. (2) The water-economy-ecosystem coupling coordination degree of the Yellow River Basin in Henan Province is on the rise, reaching 0.8105 in 2019, which is a good state of coordination. (3) Using the ARIMA-GM combined model to predict by scenario, it is found that scenario 4 has the greatest relative improvement, and its coupling coordination degree will be 0.9394 in 2025, reaching the high-quality coordinated development category. The Yellow River Basin in Henan Province should improve water resource utilization efficiency, strengthen ecological protection, and expand the space for high-quality urban development on the basis of rapid economic development.