Abstract
A method is proposed for quantitative assessment and interpretation of the seismic hazard of planned excavation in a hard-rock mine. The quantitative assessment is derived from three-dimensional, elastic, boundary element modelling of the host rock mass. Parameters obtained from the modelling are associated with historical observations of seismicity in the mine to generate probabilistic relations between seismic event occurrence and event strength. The parameters used in the event spatial occurrence relations and the event strength estimates are the Factor of Safety against seismic failure for different types of seismic events, which are inferred from back analysis of field observations, and the Modelled Ground Work. The estimates of these parameters are related to the controlling quantities for a seismic event, which are a local state of stress sufficient to cause rock mass failure, and an unstable local concentration of strain energy, i.e. energy in excess of that which can be dissipated non-violently in rock mass failure. Application of the method is illustrated by reference to several case studies of mine seismicity.
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