Evaluation and Anomaly Detection Methods for Broadcast Ephemeris Time Series in the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System

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Broadcast ephemeris data are essential for the precision and reliability of the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) but are highly susceptible to anomalies caused by various interference factors, such as ionospheric and tropospheric effects, solar radiation pressure, and satellite clock biases. Traditional threshold-based methods and manual review processes are often insufficient for detecting these complex anomalies, especially considering the distinct characteristics of different satellite types. To address these limitations, this study proposes an automated anomaly detection method using the IF-TEA-LSTM model. By transforming broadcast ephemeris data into multivariate time series and integrating anomaly score sequences, the model enhances detection robustness through data integrity assessments and stationarity tests. Evaluation results show that the IF-TEA-LSTM model reduces the RMSE by up to 20.80% for orbital parameters and improves clock deviation prediction accuracy for MEO satellites by 68.37% in short-term forecasts, outperforming baseline models. This method significantly enhances anomaly detection accuracy across GEO, IGSO, and MEO satellite orbits, demonstrating its superiority in long-term data processing and its capacity to improve the reliability of satellite operations within the BDS.