Evaluation and analysis of carbon neutralization capacity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: Based on time weighted-rough set and unascertained model

Abstract

The carbon neutralization process continues to be a significant concern in China, particularly in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. This study defines carbon neutrality and presents a regional capacity measurement index system that includes 12 indicators across four dimensions: production reduction, lifestyle reduction, ecological removal, and technological removal. To assess the relative and absolute levels of carbon neutrality capacity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the study uses the time-weighted rough set theory and the uncertain measurement model. Additionally, the study also uses Kernel density estimation, Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition, and convergence analysis to examine the development differences in the relative capacity of carbon neutrality in the region. The findings indicate that from 2013 to 2021, the relative capacity of carbon neutrality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt exhibited an upward trend with fluctuations, and there were significant disparities in development between the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the region. However, these differences showed signs of convergence and a general convergence trend. Moreover, the production reduction and lifestyle reduction aspects in the Yangtze River Economic Belt region are currently at a moderate level, while there is still considerable room for improvement in terms of ecological reduction and technological reduction. Furthermore, there are obvious regional differences in the absolute carbon neutral capacity of the Yangtze River Economic Belt region: the upstream region of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is primarily driven by carbon emissions reduction, the middle reaches are driven by production reduction and the downstream region is driven by carbon removal. Consequently, it is crucial to consider the regional development characteristics of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and implement targeted strategies tailored to local conditions.