Evaluating western North Pacific tropical cyclone forecast in the subseasonal to seasonal prediction project database

Abstract

The Daily Tropical Cyclone Probability (DTCP), defined as the probability of tropical cyclone occurrence within 500 km of a location in 1 day, is proposed and used in evaluating subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictions from the subseasonal to seasonal Prediction Project Database, from May 1 to October 31, 1999 to 2010. The ensemble forecasts are collected from eleven operational centers, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia (HMCR), the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate of the National Research Council of Italy (ISAC), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Météo-France/Centre National de Recherche Meteorologiques (METFR), the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO). In both observation and these eleven forecast models, the daily tropical cyclone probability is modulated by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), depicted by the two indices, boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation 1 and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation 2. During boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation 1 phases 1, 5, 6, 7, and 8, the daily tropical cyclone probability in the western North Pacific region is ∼3.5 times higher. Similarly, during phases 1, 2, 3, 4, and 8 of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation 2, the daily tropical cyclone probability is ∼2.5 times higher. Among the eleven models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model best reproduces the climatological daily tropical cyclone probability and its modulation by the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the western North Pacific region, followed by the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the Korea Meteorological Administration, the Japan Meteorological Agency models. Using the daily tropical cyclone probability metric, the highest debiased Brier Skill Score of the eleven models is from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which has a slightly less skillful prediction than the reference climatological forecast with lead time 11–30 days. The skill of the eleven models is higher during the non-active phases of tropical cyclone activity than their skill during the active phases.