Evaluating urban population carrying capacity of Surat: probability-satisfaction approach

Abstract

With around 36 % of urbanization, Indian cities are becoming saturated because of increased migration. This is resulting in excessive utilization of natural resources and physical infrastructure. The unprecedented excessive utilization of the resources needs critical evaluation for better planning. For that, it is important to evaluate an urban area's true population carrying capacity given its limited resources and infrastructure. It helps planners and policymakers for better management of cities. This paper shows an estimation of the urban population carrying capacity of Surat City using the Probability-Satisfaction method with the help of various factors like water treatment & solid waste management to employment & hospital beds which cover physical as well as social factors. Analysis shows the population carrying capacity of Surat City at different Probability-Satisfaction levels and compares it with the current scenario. Some important results are that when the Probability-Satisfaction level changes from acceptable to ideal level, Surat City’s health infrastructure has a maximum population carrying capacity of 112.1 million to 102.2 million simultaneously and solid waste management has the lowest population carrying capacity which is 4.7 million to 3.9 million simultaneously. Also, it's observed that factors like healthcare, wastewater treatment, and green area show less rigidness while factors like wastewater treatment, road area, and electricity show more rigidness in increasing carrying capacity.