Evaluating urban population carrying capacity of Surat: probability-satisfaction approach

Abstract

With around 36% of urbanisation, Indian cities are becoming saturated because of increased migration. This results in excessive utilisation of natural resources and physical infrastructure. Given its limited resources and infrastructure, it is important to evaluate an urban area’s true population carrying capacity. It helps planners and policymakers in managing cities better. This paper shows an estimation of the urban population carrying capacity of Surat City using the probability-satisfaction method with the help of factors like water treatment, solid waste management, employment, and hospital beds, which cover physical as well as social factors. Analysis shows the population carrying capacity of Surat City at different probability-satisfaction levels and compares it with the current scenario. Some important results are that when the probability-satisfaction level changes from acceptable to ideal level, Surat City’s health infrastructure has a maximum population carrying capacity of 112.1 to 102.2 million simultaneously and solid waste management has the lowest population carrying capacity, which is 4.7 to 3.9 million simultaneously. Also, it is observed that factors such as healthcare, wastewater treatment, and green area show less rigidness, while factors such as wastewater treatment, road area, and electricity show more rigidness in increasing carrying capacity.