Evaluating Uganda’s preferential market access; trade intensity, comparative advantage and the potential for trade

Abstract

Purpose Preferential market access is a pillar of the enabling clause in international trade, and as such has received scholarly attention in the recent past. This study aims to empirically examine intensity and utilisation of Uganda’s preferential market access. Design/methodology/approach Secondary data at the six-digit level of the harmonised system was sourced from the International Trade Centre’s and UN COMTRADE’s Trade Map database on trade flows to compute; trade intensity indices, Balsa’s revealed comparative advantage (RCA) indices and the existing potential trade. The time period was 2013–2022. Findings It is evident that Uganda is not taking full advantage of its preferential market access. The findings of the trade intensity analysis revealed that the strength of trade relations between Uganda and its preferential markets has been consistently weak in the period 2013–2022, while the intensity of trade relations with its FTA partners has been strong. The RCA results revealed that all Uganda’s agricultural exports to its preferential markets have a comparative advantage, with exports of roses reporting an exceptionally high RCA relative to other agricultural exports. The RCA results also show that the comparative advantage of Uganda’s coffee exports recovered after a significant fall in the period 2014–2022. The analysis of the existing potential for trade reveals a disproportionally low market share held by Uganda across all product lines, notably, only 2.3% of the US$29bn coffee imports in its preferential markets. Research limitations/implications One limitation of this study is that it primarily relied on quantitative data from the International Trade Centre and thus lacks an exhaustive understanding of the circumstances at the export firm level. Qualitative data, such as interviews with exporters and policymakers, could provide deeper insights into the specific challenges and opportunities faced by Ugandan businesses in these markets. Practical implications This paper highlights the need for additional trade facilitation measures to address preferential market access bottlenecks such as stringent rules of origin and call for an aggressive government intervention in enhancing the export readiness of SMEs in Uganda. In addition, the paper is informative to Uganda’s exporters regarding the existing and potential increase in their exports to international markets. Originality/value The strength of Uganda’s trade relations with its preferential markets is empirically examined in this paper and provides useful insights for enhancing utilisation of preferential market access by beneficiary countries.