Evaluating Trends of Land Productivity Change and Their Causes in the Han River Basin, China: In Support of SDG Indicator 15.3.1

Abstract

The Han River Basin is a main agricultural production area and a water source for the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China. Over the past 20 years, human exploitation and ecological construction have disturbed the sustainability of land productivity in the Han River Basin. Theil–Sen trend analysis, Mann–Kendall statistical test, and Hurst index methods were applied to examine spatial–temporal trends and sustainability characteristics of land net primary productivity (NPP) change in the Han River Basin from 2001 to 2019 using MOD17A3 NPP product, natural, and socio-economic data obtained from Google Earth Engine (GEE). The findings demonstrated that the interannual variation of land NPP exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with a more pronounced growth rate from 2001 to 2010 than from 2011 to 2019. The spatial heterogeneity of land NPP was evident, with high values in the west and low values in the east. Of the basin area, 57.82% presented a significant increase in land NPP, while only 0.96% showed a significant decrease. In the future, land NPP in the Han River Basin will present sustained growth. The results were also compared with Trends.Earth’s calculations for the SDG 15.3.1 sub-indicator of land productivity. In addition, the spatial heterogeneity of factors influencing land NPP change was explored using a multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model. Precipitation and population count were the dominant factors in most regions. Besides, precipitation, population count, and human modification all exhibited inhibitory effects on the increase in land NPP except for elevation. The research can provide a scientific basis for tracking land degradation neutrality (LDN) progress and achieving sustainable socio-ecological development of the Han River Basin.