Abstract

Abstract Future economic growth and land development have the potential to produce tradeoffs in which economic values increase at the expense of environmental values. Although such tradeoffs have not been empirically verified in mountain ecosystems, they are likely to exist for an ecosystem containing abundant natural resources and environmental amenities that is undergoing rapid economic and population growth. Quantifying future tradeoffs between economic and environmental values is important because it provides information for natural resource managers and community planners that is useful in alleviating the adverse impacts of future growth and development on wildlife. Such tradeoffs are quantified for Flathead County, Montana, located in the Northern Rocky Mountains of the United States, using the Ecosystem Landscape Modeling System (ELMS). In particular, the ELMS is used for the following: (1) to simulate the extent of the tradeoffs between economic values (ie total output of goods and services) and w...

Highlights

  • Land development caused by economic growth often reduces the ecological integrity of mountain ecosystems through loss and fragmentation of wildlife habitat, increases wildlife mortality resulting from human–wildlife conflicts, boosts soil erosion and water pollution, increases the spread of exotic species, raises temperatures in streams, lakes, and ponds, and accelerates the natural processes of ecosystem change (Adger and Brown 1994; Ojima et al 1994; Turner and Meyer 1994; Vitousek 1994; Vitousek et al 1997; IIASA 1998; Baron et al 2000; Miller and Brown 2001; Solecki 2001)

  • Between 1982 and 1997, 121,000 km2 of undeveloped nonfederal lands in the United States were transformed into urban areas (USDA 2000), which has contributed to species extinction (Stoltzenburg 1996)

  • The 16-km buffer zones have a larger developed area than the 8-km buffer zones, and the developed area of the buffer zones for the 5 protected areas increases as growth rates increase, except between the moderate and high growth rate scenarios under the current land use policy. This exception occurs because all of the land available for development in the buffer zones is developed under the moderate economic growth–current land use policy scenario

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Summary

Introduction

Land development caused by economic growth often reduces the ecological integrity of mountain ecosystems through loss and fragmentation of wildlife habitat, increases wildlife mortality resulting from human–wildlife conflicts, boosts soil erosion and water pollution, increases the spread of exotic (nonnative) species, raises temperatures in streams, lakes, and ponds, and accelerates the natural processes of ecosystem change (Adger and Brown 1994; Ojima et al 1994; Turner and Meyer 1994; Vitousek 1994; Vitousek et al 1997; IIASA 1998; Baron et al 2000; Miller and Brown 2001; Solecki 2001). Economic growth in the Northern Rocky Mountains of the United States is being driven by lower crime rates, less traffic congestion, cleaner air and water, and more diverse outdoor recreational opportunities and environmental amenities than exist in other regions of the country (Prato 2004; Gude et al 2006; Gruver 2007). Economic growth increases economic values, notably total output, jobs, and personal income, the resulting land development changes land cover and land use, which can diminish environmental amenities and the quality of life (Meyer 1993; Rasker and Hansen 2000; Swanson et al 2003; Rasker et al 2004; Prato and Fagre 2005)

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