Evaluating the “Trenton Effect”: Canadian Public Opinion and Military Casualties in Afghanistan (2006–2010)

Abstract

Is the public perception of Canadians influenced by military losses in Afghanistan? Many commentators, academics, and members of the media have taken for granted that growing popular discontent toward Canada's involvement in Afghanistan has been influenced by the human costs of military operations. However, without an empirical examination of the question, such a claim remains assumed. This article assesses the influence of Canada's military casualties suffered in Afghanistan between 2006 and 2010 on Canadian public opinion. In looking at both aggregate and gendered data, I find that mounting military casualties in Kandahar had no significant impact on public opinion. However, in analyzing Canadian public opinion following regional divisions, I find that Quebec's and Alberta's public attitudes were surprisingly casualty-tolerant. Public opposition to the Afghanistan mission in other regions – that is, Ontario, British Columbia, Manitoba/Saskatchewan, and the Atlantic provinces – was shaped to a lesser degree by casualties suffered by the Canadian Forces.