Evaluating the tipping point of a complex system: The case of disruptive technology

Abstract

AbstractComplex systems often operate in equilibriums that can be disrupted under specific conditions, driving the system to undergo an irreversible phase transition (aka tipping point) into a new equilibrium. Disruptive technology, as introduced in the book Innovator's Dilemma, is a new emerging technology that can successfully displace incumbent technologies and push the market through phase transition into a new equilibrium. In this paper, the authors model the market disruption caused by a disruptive technology as a complex system, with dynamics that show a phase transition or tipping point, after which the system shifts into a new equilibrium aiming at assessing the success or failure of a disruptive technology. The purpose of this study is to mathematically model a tipping point measure of complex networks and a theoretical framework for disruptive technology dynamics. A predator–prey model is used to emulate the behavior of a disruptive technology versus an incumbent technology, and a resilience index is integrated to measure the tipping point in the market where the disruptive technology will overtake the incumbent technology. This methodology is applied to a historical case study of film versus digital versus cell phone cameras, demonstrating the application of this methodology. The study's contribution can be applied to both systems engineering and disruptive innovation management. The proposed approach can help stakeholders assess the impact of a potential new disruptive technology and use the resulting resilience index as a measurement for adjusting technology requirements and systems management approaches to achieve a desired outcome.