Evaluating the suitability of two parametric wind speed distributions: a case study from Pakistan

Abstract

The most suitable energy source for human use is wind energy which is inexpensive and supports to fulfill the energy demand of the large population. In Pakistan, different wind energy projects are under progress in different potential sites to deal with the energy crises and environmental pollution. Therefore, it is need of the hour to identify all the wind energy potential sites in Pakistan. For that purpose, different wind speed distributions are used. The wind speed distribution is described by the application of probability density functions (pdfs) to evaluate the wind energy potential. The two-parameter Weibull probability density function is used extensively for the applications of wind energy. In this study, we studied the hourly wind speed data for the period of 2017–18 from five different locations in Pakistan is selected for modeling using specific pdfs. The models consist of parametric models that are used for this purpose. The log-likelihood, AIC, BIC, RMSE (root mean square error) and R2 (coefficient of determination) provides the basis for the evaluation of wind speed data with the application of suitable distribution. Results indicate that, Gamma and extreme value distributions provide generally the best fit to the wind speed data for all stations.