Evaluating the spatiotemporal ozone characteristics with high-resolution predictions in mainland China, 2013–2019

Abstract

Evaluating ozone levels at high resolutions and accuracy is crucial for understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of ozone distribution and assessing ozone exposure levels in epidemiological studies. The national models with high spatiotemporal resolutions to predict ground ozone concentrations are limited in China so far. In this study, we aimed to develop a random forest model by combining ground ozone measurements from fixed stations, ozone simulations from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, meteorological parameters, population density, road length, and elevation to predict ground maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations at a daily level and 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution. The model cross-validation R2 and root mean squared error (RMSE) were 0.80 and 20.93 μg/m3 at daily level in 2013–2019, respectively. CMAQ ozone simulations and near-surface temperature played vital roles in predicting ozone concentrations among all predictors. The population-weighted median concentrations of predicted MDA8 ozone were 89.34 μg/m3 in mainland China in 2013, and reached 100.96 μg/m3 in 2019. However, the long-term temporal variations among regions were heterogeneous. Central and Eastern China, as well as the Southeast Coastal Area, suffered higher ozone pollution and higher increased rates of ozone concentrations from 2013 to 2019. The seasonal pattern of ozone pollution varied spatially. The peak-season ozone pollution with the highest 6-month ozone concentrations occurred in different months among regions, with more than half domain in April–September. The predictions showed that not only the annual mean concentrations but also the percentages of grid-days with MDA8 ozone concentrations higher than 100/160 μg/m3 have been increasing in the past few years in China; meanwhile, majority areas in mainland China suffered peak-season ozone concentrations higher than the air quality guidelines launched by the World Health Organization in September 2021. The proposed model and ozone predictions with high spatiotemporal resolution and full coverage could provide health studies with flexible choices to evaluate ozone exposure levels at multiple spatiotemporal scales in the future.