Evaluating the Scale and Potential of GLOF in the Bhutan Himalayas Using a Satellite-Based Integral Glacier–Glacial Lake Inventory

Hiroto Nagai,Nobuhiro Tomiyama,Jinro Ukita,Takeo Tadono,Chiyuki Narama,Tsutomu Yamanokuchi,Koji Fujita,Akiko Sakai

doi:10.3390/geosciences7030077

Abstract

A comprehensive glacier–glacial lake inventory was developed for the Bhutan Himalayas based on satellite observations between 1987–1990 and 2006–2011. In total, 733 lakes (covering 82.6 km2) were delineated between 4000 and 6000 m a.s.l. and their relationships to associated glaciers were documented. Using this new inventory, the scale and potential for glacial lake outburst flooding (GLOF) based on multiple criteria was examined. This included a history of connectivity characteristics of glacial lakes to mother glaciers, potential flood volumes, and debris-cover of mother glaciers in addition to the conventional criteria of expansion rate and lake size. The majority of the lakes with high expansion rates (more than double in size) and large areas (>0.1 km2) met the conditions of being continuously in contact with a mother debris-covered glacier for nearly 20 years. Based on these multiple criteria, two lakes were identified as having potential for large-scale GLOF. Potentially dangerous glacial lakes listed in the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) study were re-visited, and some overlaps with the glacier–glacial lake inventory were found.

Highlights

10,000 glacial lakes are located in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region and on the Tibetan Plateau [1,2]
potential flood volume (PFV) were calculated according to the definition given in [14]
The current study developed a comprehensive glacier–glacial lake inventory for the Bhutan

Summary

Introduction

10,000 glacial lakes are located in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region and on the Tibetan Plateau [1,2]. Previous studies have reported changes in the surface areas of these lakes in recent decades. A previous study compiled a glacial lake inventory containing 30 lakes in the Bhutan Himalayas in the easternmost HKH region, and recorded a history of growth and integration of small lakes into fewer but larger lakes since the 1950s [4]. Lakes on the northern side of the Himalayan Range have shown slow expansion since the 1950s. Those on the southern side formed after the 1950s have rapidly expanded [5]

Results

Discussion

Conclusion