Evaluating the rate of change and predicting the future scenario of spatial pattern using Markov chain model: a study from Baghmundi C.D. Block of Purulia district, West Bengal

Abstract

In the era of twenty-first century, the endless demands of human have promoted land use land cover (LULC) change, and its understanding is more essential for proper management and future planning towards the sustainable development. An analysis of LULC is made for the Baghmundi Community Development (C.D.) Block of Purulia district of West Bengal, India to observe the changes over time. The Landsat images of 1972, 1992, 1999, 2009 and 2019 are taken to prepare the LULC maps using RS and GIS techniques. Moreover, the Markov chain model is computed to estimate LULC change of 2039. Thematic maps of different years show several changes in LULC. An accuracy assessment of the classifications of LULC of the years 1999, 2009 and 2019 is calculated as 81.32%, 81.36% and 80.16% respectively. The kappa coefficient is also computed for the same years to understand the level of agreement between classified LULC type and ground level LULC type. The values of kappa coefficient are 0.76 for 1999, 0.77 for 2009 and 0.75 for 2019. Within the time frame of 1972 to 2019, the vegetation cover declined to 44.79 km2, while the built-up area increased to 40.21 km2. Based on the predicted model, the vegetation cover may lose 33.60 km2 in 2039 from the year 2019, and it may mainly be acquired by the agricultural land (21.94 km2) and built-up area (7.93 km2).