Evaluating the project completion time when activity networks follow beta distribution

Abstract

By using a recursive method, we determine the project completion time when the activity times are distributed according to a beta distribution. The [Formula: see text]th moment of the maximum of non-identical independent random variables following this distribution-type is evaluated. Applicability and appropriateness of the beta model are illustrated by some examples, which show that the suggested estimate program evaluted and review technique of the project completion time is located between the lower bound estimate (PERT) and the upper estimate that was obtained by Kambarowski An upper bound on the expected completion time of PERT networks, Eur. J. Oper. Res. 21(2) (1985b) 206–212. Moreover, this estimate gives less values of the approximation errors than most of the other known estimates.