Evaluating the market activity and pricing of agricultural land in the Central Black Earth economic region of the Russian Federation

Abstract

For the analysis of market activity and prediction of market prices for agricultural land plots, a method based on the use of an econometric model of multiple regression is proposed. The method was tested on the example of the regions of the Central Black Earth economic region of the Central Federal District of Russia. The main parameters of the agricultural land market in the regions of the Central Black Earth economic region are determined. The research clearly demonstrates that the activity on the secondary land market of agricultural land is determined by the following factors: the structure of ownership of agricultural land, socio-demographic features, migration processes, income levels of the population, and natural and climatic features of the region. It has been established that a part of transactions on the land market implies further withdrawal of land from agricultural use. The main factors determining the price of a land plot are the size of the plot and the distance to the regional center. It was not possible to establish a statistically confirmed link between the specific market price of a land plot and soil fertility indicators, rental income and indicators characterizing the level of economic development and determining the cadastral value of agricultural land plots. It is concluded that further civilized development of the land market depends on improving the regulatory framework, stricter state control, and restricting the rights of market participants to prevent unreasonable transfer of agricultural land to other categories.