Evaluating the Macroeconomic Burden of Potentially Averted Surgical Deaths Under Five.

Abstract

Introduction Increasing the worldwide surgical, anesthesia, and obstetric (SAO) workforce to 20-40 providers per 100,000 people could prevent anywhere from 273,000 to 600,000 deaths under age five annually. Utilizing VSL, we can calculate the value of welfare loss regions would face if we fail to prevent these deaths annually. Methods To estimate the total global economic welfare losses related to potential averted surgical deaths under age five, we first estimated country-specific values of statistical life, adjusting for the relationship between VSL (US and OECD) and income (income elasticity 1.0 and 1.5), and multiplied this by the averted pediatric deaths in each country that would be expected with an increase in the SAO workforce worldwide. We used GNI data from 2018 and estimates of under five deaths by Truche et al. Results With a US VSL, elasticity of 1.5, and deaths averted by increasing the global SAO workforce to 40 per 100,000, we estimate 175 billion dollars in economic welfare losses could be prevented. This loss would affect low- and middle-income countries the most representing 2.04 to 4.48% of their GNI. Conclusion The loss of 600,000 children lives annually alone should inspire and motivate future policy, but the added potential economic welfare losses stress the importance of developing national policies aimed at providing safe, accessible, and affordable surgical care worldwide.