Evaluating the Influence of the International Civil Aviation Organization on Aircraft Accident Rates and Fatalities: A Seven-Decade Historical Data Analysis

Abstract

The advent of air travel, originally proposed by the Wright brothers, has led to a significant surge in aircraft usage for human transportation. In its nascent stages, this mode of transport was linked with a high frequency of accidents and consequent fatalities, placing it in the high-risk category. To counter these risks, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) was established in 1947 as a collaborative effort among numerous countries with the primary goal of enhancing aviation safety regulations. This study analyzed archival data from the Bureau of Aircraft Accidents Archives (B3A), covering a span of 72 years from 1918, the year of the first commercial airplane crash, until 2020. The objective was to understand the ICAO's impact on altering accident rates, fatalities, and underlying causes. Analytical methodologies encompassed both descriptive statistics—examining data distribution, central tendencies, and category frequencies—and exploratory data analysis (EDA) to identify variable relationships and outlier identification. The results indicated that ICAO's interventions have led to a notable decline in accident rates, with an annual average reduction of 70.9%, and a corresponding decrease in incidents attributed to technical factors. However, an unexpected trend was the increase in fatalities despite the drop in accident numbers, attributable to the introduction of larger aircraft designs carrying more passengers per flight. The findings underscore the ICAO's successful efforts in reducing aircraft accidents, but also suggest a need for further exploration into factors contributing to the rise in fatalities.