Abstract
The ecosystems across the Tibetan Plateau are changing rapidly in response to climate change, which poses unprecedented challenges for the control and mitigation of desertification on the Tibetan Plateau. Sophora moorcroftiana (Benth.) Baker is a drought-resistant plant species that has great potential to be used for desertification and soil degradation control on the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) niche model, we characterized the habitat distribution of S. moorcroftiana on the Tibetan Plateau under both current and future climate scenarios. To construct a robust model, 242 population occurrence records, gathered from our field surveys, historical data records, and a literature review, were used to calibrate the MaxEnt model. Our results showed that, under current environmental conditions, the habitat of S. moorcroftiana was concentrated in regions along the Yarlung Tsangpo, Lancang, and Jinsha rivers on the Tibetan Plateau. Elevation, isothermality, and minimal air temperature of the coldest month played a dominant role in determining the habitat distribution of S. moorcroftiana. Under future climate scenarios, the increased air temperature was likely to benefit the expansion of S. moorcroftiana over the short term, but, in the long run, continued warming may restrict the growth of S. moorcroftiana and lead to a contraction in its habitat. Importantly, the Yarlung Tsangpo River valley was found to be the core habitat of S. moorcroftiana, and this habitat moved westwards along the Yarlung Tsangpo River under future climate scenarios, but did not detach from it. This finding suggests that, with the current pace of climate change, an increase in efforts to protect and cultivate S. moorcroftiana is necessary and critical to control desertification on the Tibetan Plateau.
Highlights
To the best of our knowledge, this paper presents the first study on the distribution of S. moorcroftiana habitats on the Tibetan Plateau under both current and future climate change scenarios using ecological niche modeling
The habitat of S. moorcroftiana was found to be narrowly distributed along the Yarlung Tsangpo, Lancang, and Jinsha rivers on the Tibetan Plateau under the current climate
S. moorcroftiana is suitable for regions with elevation ranging from 3400 to 4250 m, isothermality thresholds from 43 to 48, and minimum temperature of the coldest month thresholds from −19 to −9 ◦ C
Summary
Anthropogenic warming has caused substantial changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of the global climate [1,2]. The resulting variations in extreme temperatures and precipitation, in particular, threaten the stability and diversity of plant ecosystems globally [3,4], especially in high-elevation regions [5]. As the world’s third pole, the Tibetan Plateau has experienced more rapid climate change than other biomes on earth [5]. Previous studies have shown that the Himalayas have warmed, over the past 100 years, much higher than the global average of 0.74 ◦ C [6]. The increase in the air temperature of the Tibetan Plateau averaged 0.16 ◦ C per decade from 1955 to 1996, with a higher rate in winter (0.32 ◦ C/decade), exceeding that of the areas at
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