Evaluating the Influence of Antecedent Soil Moisture on Variability of the North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Coupled MM5/VIC Modeling System

Abstract

The influence of antecedent soil moisture on North American monsoon system (NAMS) precipitation variability was explored using the MM5 mesoscale model coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model. Sensitivity experiments were performed with extreme wet and dry initial soil moisture conditions for both the 1984 wet monsoon year and the 1989 dry year. The MM5‐VIC model reproduced the key features of NAMS in 1984 and 1989 especially over northwestern Mexico. Our modeling results indicate that the land surface has memory of the initial soil wetness prescribed at the onset of the monsoon that persists over most of the region well into the monsoon season (e.g. until August). However, in contrast to the classical thermal contrast concept, where wetter soils lead to cooler surface temperatures, less land‐sea thermal contrast, weaker monsoon circulations and less precipitation, the coupled model consistently demonstrated a positive soil moisture – precipitation feedback. Specifically, anomalously wet pre‐monsoon soil moisture always lead to enhanced monsoon precipitation, and the reverse was also true. Both the large‐scale circulation change and local land‐atmospheric interactions in response to pre‐monsoon soil moisture anomalies play important roles in the coupled model's positive soil moisture – monsoon precipitation feedback. However, the former may be sensitive to the strength and location of the thermal anomalies, thus leaving open the possibility of both positive and negative soil moisture – precipitation feedbacks. Furthermore, our use of a regional model with prescribed large‐scale circulation at the model boundaries leaves open the possibility that the model behavior may, to some extent, reflect its limited ability to adjust its large‐scale circulation to the regional thermal changes.