Evaluating the impact of the Clean Heat Program on air pollution levels in New York City

Abstract

Background: Residual heating oil combustion has been consistently linked to adverse health effects. In 2012, New York City established a series of policies known as the Clean Heat Program to eliminate the use of residual heating oil and move towards cleaner forms of energy. We aim to evaluate the outcomes of these policies by assessing the association between fuel conversion and reduction in the concentrations of air pollutants from 2012 to 2016, including sulfur dioxide (SO2), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2).Methods: We used linear regression models and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) tests to assess spatial autocorrelation and select the appropriate spatial autoregressive (SAR) model. Spatial lag models at the census tract level were used to investigate the association between fuel conversion and changes in the concentration of three air pollutants, adjusting for emissions from on-road vehicles, building age, and median household income. To address the potential equity concerns of the Clean Heat Program, we also evaluated whether household income in quartiles, as a surrogate for neighborhood-level socioeconomic status (SES), modified these relationships.Results: After controlling for spatial autocorrelation and potential confounders, on average, for every 10 buildings that converted from heating oil #6 to cleaner fuels, we observed statistically significant reductions of 0.28 ppb (95%CI: 0.22, 0.34) in SO2, 0.12 µg/m3 (95%CI: 0.09, 0.15) in PM2.5, and 0.29 ppb (95%CI: 0.17, 0.41) in NO2. Although we did not observe evidence of statistical modification by SES, pollutant decreases were largest for the lowest and highest SES quartiles.Conclusions: Converting heating oil #6 to cleaner fuels was effective in reducing SO2, PM2.5, and NO2. The Clean Heat Program appears to have been effective for individuals at both low- and high-income levels. Future work should continue to evaluate the impact of targeted policies on air pollution.