Evaluating the impact of general versus vocational education on labor market outcomes in Egypt by means of a regression discontinuity design

Abstract

This study contributes to the scarce literature in developing countries by causally analyzing the long-term impact of secondary general versus vocational education on labor market outcomes in Egypt. Our regression discontinuity design (RDD) exploits a cutoff in exam scores that tracks students in upper-secondary vocational or general education. Pooling data from the 2012 and 2018 Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS), we find that among male upper-secondary graduates aged 25–49 and employed in the private sector, general education graduates experience a relative advantage in terms of formal employment. We find no impact on employment, public-sector employment for the employed, or wages for those in wage employment. Given the relatively poor prospects of vocational graduates, who account for two-thirds of enrollment at the upper-secondary level, improving the efficiency of vocational upper-secondary education could have a significant impact on the working conditions of many Egyptians.