Abstract
Vehicle ownership is one of the most important factors affecting fuel demand. Based on the forecast of China’s vehicle ownership, this paper estimates China’s fuel demand in 2035 and explores the impact of new energy vehicles replacing fossil fuel vehicles. The paper contributes to the existing literature by taking into account the heterogeneity of provinces when using the Gompertz model to forecast future vehicle ownership. On that basis, the fuel demand of each province in 2035 is calculated. The results show that: (1) The vehicle ownership rate of each province conforms to the S-shape trend with the growth of real GDP per capita. At present, most provinces are at a stage of accelerating growth. However, the time for the vehicle ownership rate of each province to reach the inflection point is quite different. (2) Without considering the replacement of new energy vehicles, China’s auto fuel demand is expected to be 746.69 million tonnes (Mt) in 2035. Guangdong, Henan, and Shandong are the top three provinces with the highest fuel demand due to economic and demographic factors. The fuel demand is expected to be 76.76, 64.91, and 63.95 Mt, respectively. (3) Considering the replacement of new energy vehicles, China’s fuel demand in 2035 will be 709.35, 634.68, and 560.02 Mt, respectively, under the scenarios of slow, medium, and fast substitution—and the replacement levels are 37.34, 112.01, and 186.67 Mt, respectively. Under the scenario of rapid substitution, the reduction in fuel demand will reach 52.2% of China’s net oil imports in 2016. Therefore, the withdrawal of fuel vehicles will greatly reduce the oil demand and the dependence on foreign oil of China. Faced with the dual pressure of environmental crisis and energy crisis, the forecast results of this paper provide practical reference for policy makers to rationally design the future fuel vehicle exit plan and solve related environmental issues.
Highlights
China has become the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the United States
The net oil import of China was 358 million tonnes (Mt), and its foreign oil dependency rose to 61.8% [2]
The research purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of fossil fuel vehicle exit on China’s oil demand
Summary
China has become the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the United States. In 2016, China’s oil consumption was 579 Mt, accounting for 13.1% of the world’s total oil consumption [1]. The net oil import of China was 358 Mt, and its foreign oil dependency rose to 61.8% [2]. The continued rising foreign oil dependency has seriously threatened China’s energy security [3]. The oil demand for road transportation is currently the largest oil consumer in China. In 2015, the proportion of oil consumption in the road transportation sector accounted for 48.4% of the total [4]
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