Abstract
The emergence and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A virus subtype H5N1 in Asia, Europe and Africa has had an enormously socioeconomic impact and presents an important threat to human health because of its efficient animal-to-human transmission. Many factors contribute to the occurrence and transmission of HPAI H5N1 virus, but the role of environmental temperature remains poorly understood. Based on an approach of integrating a Bayesian Cox proportional hazards model and a Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model, we examined the specific impact of environmental temperature on HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry around the globe during the period from 1 December 2003 to 31 December 2009. The results showed that higher environmental temperature was a significant risk factor for earlier occurrence of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry, especially for a temperature of 25 °C. Its impact varied with epidemic waves (EWs), and the magnitude of the impact tended to increase over EWs.
Highlights
Pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H5N1 was first reported on a goose farm in Guangdong Province of China in 1996; human cases were reported in Hong Kong in 1997 [1,2,3], illustrating for the first time that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 could be transmitted directly from birds to humans
Liu et al showed that environmental temperature dropped shortly before HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in wild birds and domestic poultry of Eurasia between 2005 and 2006 [20], but only descriptive analysis was applied
HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in wild birds of Europe from 2005 to 2008 with some anthropogenic and physical environmental factors controlled [19], but the air temperature in their study were from the database before 2000, resulting in biased results because of wrong matching between temperature dates and outbreak dates
Summary
Pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H5N1 was first reported on a goose farm in Guangdong Province of China in 1996; human cases were reported in Hong Kong in 1997 [1,2,3], illustrating for the first time that HPAI H5N1 could be transmitted directly from birds to humans. In late 2003, HPAI H5N1 reemerged and spread from East/Southeast Asia to Central Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Africa. Over 60 countries had experienced HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry and wild bird populations [4]. Efficient human-to-human transmission has not yet been reported [5], the possibility of transmission among humans cannot be ruled out because of continuous viral mutation and gene re-assortment [6,7]. To efficiently prevent an influenza pandemic from HPAI H5N1, it is important to investigate the risk factors of its occurrence and spread. Previous studies have identified the contributions of bird migration, transportation of poultry and poultry products, illegal trade, highway networks, vegetation zones and human activities to HPAI
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