Abstract
A hydrometeorological forecasting system has been operating at the Institute of Marine Biological Resources and Inland Waters (IMBRIW) of the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR) since September 2015. The system consists of the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model, the WRF-Hydro hydrological model, and the HEC-RAS hydraulic–hydrodynamic model. The system provides daily 120 h weather forecasts focusing on Greece (4 km horizontal resolution) and hydrological forecasts for the Spercheios and Evrotas rivers in Greece (100 m horizontal resolution), also providing flash flood inundation forecasts when needed (5 m horizontal resolution). The main aim of this study is to evaluate precipitation forecasts produced in a 4-year period (September 2015–August 2019) using measurements from meteorological stations across Greece. Water level forecasts for the Evrotas and Spercheios rivers were also evaluated using measurements from hydrological stations operated by the IMBRIW. Moreover, the forecast skill of the chained meteorological–hydrological–hydraulic operation of the system was investigated during a catastrophic flash flood in the Evrotas river. The results indicated that the system provided skillful precipitation and water level forecasts. The best evaluation results were yielded during rainy periods. They also demonstrated that timely flash flood forecasting products could benefit flood warning and emergency responses due to their efficiency and increased lead time.
Highlights
The interconnected physical processes between the atmosphere and hydrosphere affect the water cycle of the planet and sometimes trigger severe hydrometeorological phenomena like floods [1]
Precipitation forecasts produced for a 4-year period (September 2015–August 2019) were evaluated using measurements from 24 meteorological stations across Greece
The forecast skill of the system set up in a coupled meteorological–hydrological–hydraulic operation was investigated during a flash flood in Evrotas river (7 September 2016), causing one fatality, extensive damages, and overflow of a bridge at Skala town
Summary
The interconnected physical processes between the atmosphere and hydrosphere affect the water cycle of the planet and sometimes trigger severe hydrometeorological phenomena like floods [1]. The implementation and operation of flood forecasting and warning systems are important parts of flood management services [3,4,5]. In this context, several operational flood forecasting systems have been implemented, especially during the last two decades. Several operational flood forecasting systems have been implemented, especially during the last two decades These can be divided into two main categories, the global-scale and the continental-scale flood forecasting systems [6]. As regards the globalscale flood forecasting systems, the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS [7]) is one of the most popular. As regards the continental-scale flood forecasting systems, the National Water Model (NWM) and the European Flood Alert System (EFAS)
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