Evaluating the Feasibility of the Liuxihe Model for Forecasting Inflow Flood to the Fengshuba Reservoir

Abstract

Because of differences in the underlying surface, short flood confluence times, extreme precipitation, and other dynamic parameters, it is difficult to forecast an inflow flood to a basin reservoir, and traditional hydrological models do not achieve the forecast accuracy required for flood control operations. This study of the Fengshuba Reservoir in China evaluated the capacity of the Liuxihe model, which is based on a physically distributed hydrological model, to predict inflow floods in the Fengshuba Reservoir. The results show that the Liuxihe model has good applicability for flood forecasting in the basin. The use of different river classifications influenced the simulation results. The Liuxihe model can take into account the temporal and spatial inhomogeneity of precipitation and model parameters can be optimized using particle swarm optimization; this greatly improves the accuracy. The results show that the Liuxihe model can be used for real-time flood forecasting in the Fengshuba Reservoir watershed.