Evaluating the Efficiency of Off-Ball Screens in Elite Basketball Teams via Second-Order Markov Modelling

Nikolaos Stavropoulos,Alexandra Papadopoulou,Pavlos Kolias

doi:10.3390/math9161991

Nikolaos Stavropoulos, Alexandra Papadopoulou + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/math9161991

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Journal: Mathematics	Publication Date: Aug 20, 2021
Citations: 4	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

Abstract

In basketball, the offensive movements on both strong and weak sides and tactical behavior play major roles in the effectiveness of a team’s offense. In the literature, studies are mostly focused on offensive actions, such as ball screens on the strong side. In the present paper, for the first time a second-order Markov model is defined to evaluate players’ interactions on the weak side, particularly for exploring the effectiveness of tactical structures and off-ball screens regarding the final outcome. The sample consisted of 1170 possessions of the FIBA Basketball Champions League 2018–2019. The variables of interest were the type of screen on the weak side, the finishing move, and the outcome of the shot. The model incorporates partial non-homogeneity according to the time of the execution (0–24″) and the quarter of playtime, and it is conditioned on the off-ball screen type. Regarding the overall performance, the results indicated that the outcome of each possession was influenced not only by the type of the executed shot, but also by the specific type of screen that took place earlier on the weak side of the offense. Thus, the proposed model could operate as an advisory tool for the coach’s strategic plans.

Highlights

Christos Vassiliou and AndreasBasketball is a team sport that is constantly evolving due to the changes in regulations, the faster pace, the increasing physical abilities of the players, and the upgrading of training methods
Concerning the shot clock, the results indicated that specific screen types, such as screen the screener and high-cross, that occur rapidly before the set-play of the offense at the top of the key area during the transition game led to more successful offensive movements in the first 8 s of the possession
The study of performance indicators and their use in the strategy of basketball teams to maximize performance has been the subject of extended research

Summary

Introduction

Christos Vassiliou and AndreasBasketball is a team sport that is constantly evolving due to the changes in regulations, the faster pace, the increasing physical abilities of the players, and the upgrading of training methods. The most frequent offensive movement between two players on the strong side is the ball screen. Ball screens are important coordinated movements used in offense, providing enhanced strategy on the court [3]. During the action of ball screen, one player is the screener, who blocks the defensive movements of the opponents from an appropriate area, and the other is the ball handler, who creates opportunities by either passing to the screener-cutter (roll or pop out to the basket) or becoming the cutter by executing a shot himself [4,5]. Coordinated movements on the weak side are extremely important for the overall offensive performance of each team. The most common offensive tactics used on the weak side are the off-ball screens [6]. The continuous movements and screen types on the weak side are crucial factors in allowing advantageous positions while executing the shots. Previous results in NCAA basketball league have shown that the winning teams had approximately 11 off-ball screens less than the losing teams [7]

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