Abstract
This study aimed to develop a model to estimate the impacts of zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption on CO2 emissions and to evaluate efficacy of ZEV deployment strategies in achieving greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction goals. We proposed a modeling scheme to represent ZEVs in four-step trip-based travel demand models. We then tested six ZEV scenarios that were a cross-combination of three ZEV ownership levels and two ZEV operating cost levels. The proposed modeling scheme and scenarios were implemented on the Maryland Statewide Transportation Model (MSTM) to analyze the impacts of different ZEV ownership and cost combinations on travel patterns and on CO2 emissions. The main findings were the following: (1) A high-ZEV ownership scenario (43.14% of households with ZEVs) could achieve about a 16% reduction in statewide carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2Eq) emissions from 2015 base year levels; and (2) CO2Eq emissions at a future year baseline (2030) (the Constrained Long-Range Plan) level dropped by approximately 11% in low-ZEV ownership scenarios, 17% in medium-ZEV ownership scenarios, and 32% in high-ZEV ownership scenarios. The high-ZEV ownership results also indicated a more balanced distribution of emissions per unit area or per vehicle mile traveled among different counties.
Highlights
As a result of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) emitted through human activities, global warming and anthropogenic climate change has drawn worldwide concern [1]
To what extent could zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) deployment strategies achieve this ambitious GHG emission reduction goal? This paper aims to answer this question by quantifying the amount of CO2 emissions from road passenger transport by varying ZEV ownership and cost levels and analyzing whether ZEV deployment strategies could achieve the GHG emissions reduction goal in the state of Maryland by 2030
This paper is organized as follows: Section 2 gives the details of the methods we developed to incorporate ZEVs into the Maryland Statewide Transportation Model (MSTM) and Mobile Emissions Model (MEM) and describes a set of ZEV scenarios designed to estimate the impacts on CO2 emissions
Summary
As a result of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) (mainly CO2) emitted through human activities, global warming and anthropogenic climate change has drawn worldwide concern [1]. The transportation sector emitted about 20% of global CO2 emissions in 2012, and an even higher percentage in developed countries such as the United States, members of the E.U., Japan, and others [2]. Transportation represented 26% of total U.S GHG emissions in 2014, and within the transportation sector, light-duty vehicles were by far the largest category, with 61% of GHG emissions [4]. Lopes Toledo and Lèbre La Rovere [5] have estimated that individual motorized transport accounts for 60% of total emissions from the urban transportation sector. Vierth et al [6] have shown that road transportation contributes by far the most to emission costs in Sweden
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