Abstract
The effect of temperature on the risk of mortality has been described in numerous studies of category-specific (e.g., cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific) mortality in temperate and subtropical countries, with consistent findings of U-, V-, and J-shaped exposure-response functions. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between temperature and mortality in Manila City (Philippines), during 2006–2010 to identify the potential susceptible populations. We collected daily all-cause and cause-specific death counts from the Philippine Statistics Authority-National Statistics Office and the meteorological variables were collected from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. Temperature-mortality relationships were modeled using Poisson regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear models, and were used to perform cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific analyses. The minimum mortality temperature was 30 °C, and increased risks of mortality were observed per 1 °C increase among elderly persons (RR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.31–1.80), women (RR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.27–1.69), and for respiratory causes of death (RR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.23–1.88). Seasonal effect modification was found to greatly affect the risks in the lower temperature range. Thus, the temperature-mortality relationship in Manila City exhibited an increased risk of mortality among elderly persons, women, and for respiratory-causes, with inherent effect modification in the season-specific analysis. The findings of this study may facilitate the development of public health policies to reduce the effects of air temperature on mortality, especially for these high-risk groups.
Highlights
The effects of climate change on human health have received significant attention in recent years, which has led to an increased focus on how meteorological factors affect the mortality risk [1].The association between temperature and mortality was first reported during the early 20th century, and ongoing research has attempted to continuously refine our understanding of this association by establishing the robustness of various models [2]
Studies regarding the temperature-mortality relationship are becoming increasingly common throughout the world and in Southeast Asia, with various studies being conducted in the cities of Vietnam, Thailand, and Taiwan [3,4]
The temperature with the lowest risk of mortality is defined as the minimum mortality temperature (MMT), which varies for different geographical locations [7]
Summary
The effects of climate change on human health have received significant attention in recent years, which has led to an increased focus on how meteorological factors affect the mortality risk [1].The association between temperature and mortality was first reported during the early 20th century, and ongoing research has attempted to continuously refine our understanding of this association by establishing the robustness of various models [2]. Several researchers have reported that both high and low temperatures are associated with an increased risk of mortality. These associations between the temperature extremes and risk of mortality have commonly been described through U-, V-, and J-shaped exposure-response functions [5,6]. In these functions, the temperature with the lowest risk of mortality is defined as the minimum mortality temperature (MMT), which varies for different geographical locations [7]
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