Evaluating the effects of climate change on river water temperature downstream of a hydropower reservoir in western Canada

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on the water temperature of the Nechako River near the town of Vanderhoof (British Columbia, Canada). To do so, the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic and water temperature model was used with data from 10 climate models representing two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5) over two future time periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2100). The results showed an upward trend in projected water temperatures for all tested discharge rates from the impounding reservoir during the warmest periods of the year. The study found that water temperatures are expected to increase by up to 2.57 °C for the near future (2041-2070) and up to 3.56 °C on average for all flow scenarios studied for a far future (2071-2100) when using SSP5-8.5. The timing of the peak water temperature during the summer is also expected to shift, with maximum water temperatures occurring up to 10 days later than in the reference period. In 10.3% of the far future SSP5-8.5 scenarios, at least one day per summer had a mean daily temperature of at least 24 °C, which exceeds limits of 20 °C for sockeye salmon and 21 °C for white sturgeon which are considered detrimental for the fish. It has been shown that over 50% of sockeye salmon will stop their sustained swimming at water temperatures of 24 °C due to cardiac limitations.