Abstract
Abstract In this research, a number of paired three-dimensional Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) from CMIP (Climate Model Inter Comparison Project) 5 group with the base period of 1989–2005 have been evaluated and the output of these models was micro-scaled and calibrated by LARS-WG software. The appropriate model was selected to simulate temperature and rainfall data under the emission scenarios of RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the future period of 2020–2050, and then to model the groundwater level of the region, GMS software for both stable and transient states for one water year was calibrated and then was validated by observation data. The results in the future periods showed an increase of 1–1.5 degrees in temperature and an increase in rainfall in the early months of the year to late spring season and a decrease in rainfall in autumn season. Generally, the RCP4.5 scenario showed slightly more annual rainfall increase over the next 30 years compared to the base period than the other two scenarios. The time series investigation of the average of groundwater level shows that the implementation of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively leads to an average monthly increase of 4.2, 4.3 and 4.6 cm of the groundwater level.
Highlights
In recent years, climate changes have engaged all regions of the world with their issues and crises
In order to calibrate the aquifer in the Varamin plain under stable and transient conditions, groundwater levels associated with 48 observation wells were used
Regarding the increasing growth of water consumption and considering that the focus of much consumption is based on groundwater extraction, the topic of investigating the impact of climate change scenarios over the long term on groundwater resources is very important
Summary
Climate changes have engaged all regions of the world with their issues and crises. Climate change has a considerable impact on surface and groundwater resources (Hashmi et al ). Considering that the impact of climate changes on groundwater resources is indirect and slower than surface water resources, monitoring the status of these resources and maintaining their sustainability under the influence of these changes is of great importance (Shakiba & Cheshmi ). One of the most reliable tools for investigating the effects of climate change is the use of climatic variables simulated by the downscaling models of climatic parameters such as LARS-W that can predict climatic parameters in local scale. In this regard, numerous studies have been conducted, and are mentioned in the following paragraphs
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