Evaluating the effects of a large increase in off-sale alcohol outlets on motor vehicle crashes: a time-series analysis

Abstract

This study examined the effects on motor vehicle crashes of a policy change that led to the introduction of a very large number of off-sale alcohol outlets in Lubbock, Texas. Times-series analysis of total crashes and single-vehicle nighttime (SVN) crashes was used to compare the periods before and after the policy change in Lubbock and in a comparison area. The results of the analysis revealed some weak effects on total crashes, but no statistically significant effects were found for SVN crashes. Possible reasons for the essentially null findings of the current study regarding the effects of the policy change on motor vehicle crashes are discussed. These include the fact that there were a small number of off-sale outlets already present in the community and that motor vehicle travel immediately following alcohol consumption is less likely to occur with alcohol purchased from an off-sale outlet compared to an on-sale outlet.