Evaluating the Effectiveness of Predictive Policing in Nigeria: A Qualitative study of law Enforcement Practices in Lagos State

Abstract

This qualitative study evaluates the effectiveness of predictive policing technologies by examining the implementation within law enforcement operations in Lagos State. The research aims to explore how predictive systems influence crime prevention, and decision-making processes in policing. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with NDLEA officers, the study reveals the perceived benefits and challenges of integrating predictive policing tools into traditional methods. Through thematic analysis of interviews and review of secondary sources, the research identifies key themes such as the tension between technology and human judgement, and the potential for over-reliance on system predictions. The findings indicate that while predictive policing can improve efficiency in crime hotspot identification, its efficacy is undermined by concerns over privacy, and fairness. The study concludes that for predictive policing to be effective, it must come with strong regulatory frameworks and ethical guidelines to ensure support from technologies. This research contributes to the growing discourse on the intersection of technology and law enforcement, offering insights into how predictive policing can evolve to better serve the people.