Abstract
In this paper, the effect of strong earthquakes on slope instability has been evaluated in the range of dam reservoir Zirdan (North of Chabahar) in Iran. For this propose, the information of tectonical position, stratigraphy, structural features, seismicity and instability potential of the province of Makran have been studied. The research methodology of the analysis is based on Rock P software and Morgestron-Price stability method. The required data has been obtained and summarized through field research and experimental results. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method has been used for investigation. Then, annual risk of earthquakes has been considered by stochastic model. Further, Soft Bounds Model has been utilized for determining the seismic event magnitude in the radius of 100 Km in the dam site. Afterwards the return period seismic event was calculated by HZ2 software. The stability analysis of dam reservoir slopes has been carried out by slide software. Moreover, slopes were analyzed in saturation and seismic conditions. The analysis indicates that reservoir slopes of the Zirdan Dam are unstable under severe seismic loads. Necessary slope stability measures are recommended based on the results.
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